Trump Administration
Immigration – President-elect Trump’s first appointments, notably Tom Homan as “Border Czar,” indicates that the incoming president intends to make immigration enforcement an early priority. The President-elect has promised “mass deportations,” among other enforcement measures. An immigration crackdown, including workplace raids, could begin in the first few weeks of the new administration. In addition to enforcing existing laws, expect the Trump Administration to work with the next Republican-controlled Congress on an immigration package. Employers should prepare for potential immigration-related disruptions and should engage with lawmakers and the new administration through their trade group partners.
Nutrition – President-elect Trump announced that Robert Kennedy Jr. will be nominated to serve as Health and Human Services Secretary, noting on X that “for too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex.” Food and nutrition policy have not been a major area of focus for the President-elect. However, food policy is a focus of Robert Kennedy Jr., and Trump has stated publicly that he’ll let Robert Kennedy Jr. “go wild.” It will be important for the industry to engage early with the transition team, the White House, and Congress to ensure that political energy is channeled in ways that are productive.
NLRB – Current National Labor Relations Board Chairman Lauren McFerran was nominated by President Biden to serve a second term. Her nomination is pending in the U.S. Senate. If confirmed, Democrats will hold a majority on the Board until 2026. The business community needs to ensure that her nomination is not approved during the lame duck period, and work with the new administration to quickly fill that appointment.
Wages
Michigan – Bipartisan legislation was introduced during the lame duck session that would moderate pending increases in the minimum wage and freeze the current tip credit structure. The Michigan Supreme Court had previously ruled that the state’s minimum wage will be raised from $10.33/hr to $12.38/hr starting on Feb. 21, 2025 and annual increases in the wage will be tied to inflation. The new legislation would incrementally increase the wage to $15/hr by 2029 but freeze the current tip credit at 38 percent. Chances for passage are unclear. More details.
Missouri – Much of the business community, including the Missouri Restaurant Association, are preparing to challenge Proposition A. The measure which passed by the voters last week increases the minimum wage to $15/hr by 2026 and includes a paid leave requirement beginning May 1, 2025. Under the paid leave requirement, workers earn one hour for every 30 hours worked, up to five days for businesses with fewer than 15 employees, and seven days a year for larger businesses. The business coalition released a statement last week saying, “Proposition A poses a legal risk for all employers, including those who currently offer paid sick leave by allowing employees to sue their employers for regulating the use of sick leave or investigating sick leave misuse.” More details.
New York, NY – New York Governor Kathy Hochul, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey announced a new minimum wage proposal for area airport workers. “The new proposal provides for three upfront increases of $.75/hr in Jan. 2025, July 2025, and Jan. 2026. Beginning Jan. 1, 2027, annual increases would be tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) three-year moving average for the Northeast region, consistent with the two states’ minimum wage policies. One of the biggest demands that workers are making, raising the minimum wage to $25/hr is part of the deal as well. The proposal provides for the wage to automatically increase to $25/hr in January 2032 if that level has not already been reached through the annual CPI increases. More details.
Labor Policy
NLRB – The Board issued a landmark ruling this week declaring that mandatory attendance, so-called captive audience meetings, for employees are unlawful. The board majority made its ruling while considering six consolidated labor complaint cases against Amazon out of Staten Island. Workers at an Amazon warehouse on Staten Island first began organizing the Amazon Labor Union in April 2021, and they won the first successful unionization vote of a U.S. Amazon facility there a year later. The NLRB’s ruling orders Amazon to rectify these issues and gives it 21 days to provide the board with a sworn certification attesting to the steps it has taken to comply. The board majority also found that captive audience meetings violate workers’ rights under the National Labor Relations Act, a legal boon for union organizers nationwide. More details.
NLRB – The Board overturned nearly 40 years of precedent with the recent decision involving Starbucks which clarified that most employer statements on the company impact of unionization are considered “unlawful threats.” The case involved charges that managers at the Seattle flagship restaurant broke the law by telling workers that they would lose benefits if they joined a union. Moving forward, the board said it will be making decisions on whether company communications about unionization are allowed based on whether the company “carefully phrases” the communication “on the basis of objective fact to convey an employer’s belief as to demonstrably probable consequences beyond [its] control.” If an employer’s statements about unionization do not pass this test then it will be considered “a threat of retaliation based on misrepresentation and coercion.” More details.
Minneapolis, MN – The city council voted nine to three to create a new local labor standards board of workers and employers to recommend industry regulations for pay, safety, and equity. It’s unclear if Mayor Jacob Frey will support or veto the plan. Based on the vote, the council appears to have enough votes to override a veto. After a council committee passed the plan last week, the mayor’s office said Frey would support a board with a 50/50 split between employers and employees, a 50/50 split between mayoral and council appointments, and a requirement that at least two-thirds of the board support a recommended policy before it could advance to the city council. The plan approved this week does not include those provisions. As written, the board would have 15 members: five employer representatives, five employee representatives, and five “community stakeholder” group representatives. The council would appoint 12 members and the mayor would pick three. The most crucial work would happen on appointed subcommittees called “sectoral workgroups” that would examine specific industries, survey workers, craft regulations, and report back to the full board. More details.
Key Takeaway
- The industry cannot wait to start discussions with transition officials and key lawmakers on important areas of policy. The Trump Administration will move incredibly quickly on a number of policy items in the first 100 days, including but not limited to immigration, taxes, tariffs, and food policy. The industry needs to ensure that it is helping to shape those policy proposals now.
Podcast
Check out our Working Lunch podcast each week that includes further analysis into these legislative issues, policy, politics and much more. You can find Working Lunch on the Restaurant Business online website, SoundCloud, iTunes and Spotify.